Washington Economy Watch provides local business and government leaders with a consistent analysis of Greater Washington’s regional economy to ensure they are equipped with the information needed to make informed decisions regarding the future development of the region’s economy.
Following the onset of a recession in July of 1990, a region-specific early warning analytical framework was developed to ensure public and private sectors leaders could better anticipate changes in the direction of the local economy. The Washington Economic Index has been calculated each month since February 1991 and reflects an underlying data base that dates back to 1978.
The Washington Economic Index is the only metropolitan–level Index (consisting of Leading and Coincident Indices).
The Washington Leading Index forecasts the performance of the metropolitan area economy six to eight months in advance based on a combination of regional indicators, including unemployment, consumer expectations, retail spending, and residential building permits.
The Washington Coincident Index represents the current state of the metropolitan area economy based on a combination of regional indicators, including wage and salary employment, consumer confidence, retail sales, and domestic passenger volume.
Each month, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute will report on the status of these key indicators to ensure regional leaders have the most up-to-date information in regards to the current and near-term performance of the Washington region’s economy.
Understanding Business Cycles and The Washington Economic Index ›
Current Report
Washington Economy Watch
Vol. VIII, No. 3 – March 2024
View PDF >>
Stagnation or Reallocation?
The Coincident Index recorded another modest increase, while the Leading Index recorded a second consecutive positive reading.
- The Coincident Index increased 1.0% from January 2022 to January 2023.
- The Leading Index increased 0.1% from January 2022 to January 2023.
The coming months will reveal whether the economic soft-landing scenario plays out or whether higher-for-longer interest rates will spark a slowdown. National level economic signals remain mixed with the stock market showing very bullish trends but industrial inventories and the pace of hiring suggesting increasing softness that may turn the economy downward. In either case, the Washington region is showing resilience but not impressive growth. Labor availability in the National Capital Region remains a constraint on growth and recently released data indicate that economic stagnation may be masking a geographic reallocation of economic activity within the region. Although DC recorded the largest population increase in the area from 2022 to 2023, the District has issued far fewer residential construction permits year-to-date in 2024 than in 2023 while other area jurisdictions have issued more (see Near-Term Outlook). This suggests that the coming years could bring slower growth to the District but while outer suburbs capture a larger share of growth. Much will depend on the District’s ability to better control crime, redevelop vacant office space, create a more competitive business environment – and effectively leverage their win in the battle for sports teams.
Notice: Economic shifts that accelerated during the pandemic have altered some of the relationships among the variables included in the Washington Leading and Coincident indices that require minor modeling adjustments. These “new” indices, along with historical trends, will be released in the coming months.
More Reports
Washington Index (monthly, 1990 to present)
Download Excel File >>
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 3 – March 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 2 – February 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 1 – January 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 11 – November 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 10 – October 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 9 – September 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 8 – August 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 7 – July 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 6 – June 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 5 – May 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 4 – April 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 3 – March 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 2 – February 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 1 – January 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VI, No. 2 – December 2022
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VI, No. 1 – November 2022
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 7 – October 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 6 – September 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 5 – August 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 4 – 2Q 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 3 – March 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 2 – February 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 1 – January 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 10 – Nov/Dec 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 9 – Sep/Oct 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 8 – August 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 7 – July 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 6 – June 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 5 – May 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 4 – April 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 3 – March 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 2 – February 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 1 – January 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 11 – November 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 1 – January 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 11 – November 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 10 – October 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 8 – August 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 9 – September 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 8 – August 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 7 – July 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 6 – June 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 5 – May 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 4 – April 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 3 – March 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 2 – February 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 1 – January 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 11 – November 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 10 – October 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 9 – September 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 8 – August 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 7 – July 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 6 – June 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 5 – May 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 4 – April 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 3 – March 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 2 – February 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 1 – January 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 11 – November 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 10 – October 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 9 – September 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 8 – August 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 7 – July 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 6 – June 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 5 – May 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 4 – April 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 3 – March 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 2 – February 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 1 – January 2017