Washington Economy Watch provides local business and government leaders with a consistent analysis of Greater Washington’s regional economy to ensure they are equipped with the information needed to make informed decisions regarding the future development of the region’s economy.
Following the onset of a recession in July of 1990, a region-specific early warning analytical framework was developed to ensure public and private sectors leaders could better anticipate changes in the direction of the local economy. The Washington Economic Index has been calculated each month since February 1991 and reflects an underlying data base that dates back to 1978.
The Washington Coincident Index represents the current state of the metropolitan area economy based on a combination of regional indicators, including wage and salary employment, consumer confidence, and domestic passenger volume. This index has been simplified while being reconstructed.
Each month, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute will report on the status of these key indicators to ensure regional leaders have the most up-to-date information in regards to the current and near-term performance of the Washington region’s economy.
Understanding Business Cycles and The Washington Economic Index ›
Current Report
Washington Economy Watch
Vol. IX, No. 2 – March 2025
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A Stalled Economy with Looming Cuts
The Coincident Index increased 0.7% from February 2024 to February 2025, a modestly positive reading after upward revisions in 2024.
Despite notable employment revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), discussed at length prior to the employment forecast, the Coincident Index remains qualitatively consistent with the overall trend of a slowing economy. In general, the BLS revisions increased month-over-year employment growth for 2024 but showed a contraction on a month-over-month basis for January 2025 and a modest increase in February 2025. The Coincident Index through 2025 continues to indicate that the Washington region’s economic performance has been modest at best over the past three years.
The SFI Employment forecast anticipates that the region’s economic performance will become even more tepid over the coming months as job growth stalls. Additionally, the current forecast for flat employment growth has not fully considered the recent changes in federal policies. When factoring in modest reductions in federal employment and procurement spending, the model suggests that employment growth may turn negative. These impacts are discussed at length in the SFI Employment Forecast.
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Washington Index (monthly, 1990 to present)
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 2 – March 2025
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 1 – January 2025
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 11 – November 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 10 – October 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 9 – September 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 8 – August 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 7 – July 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 6 – June 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 5 – May 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 4 – April 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 3 – March 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 2 – February 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 1 – January 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 11 – November 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 10 – October 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 9 – September 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 8 – August 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 7 – July 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 6 – June 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 5 – May 2023
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 3 – March 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 2 – February 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 1 – January 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VI, No. 2 – December 2022
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VI, No. 1 – November 2022
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 7 – October 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 6 – September 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 5 – August 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 4 – 2Q 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 3 – March 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 2 – February 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 1 – January 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 10 – Nov/Dec 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 9 – Sep/Oct 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 8 – August 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 7 – July 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 6 – June 2020
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 4 – April 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 3 – March 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 2 – February 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 1 – January 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 11 – November 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 1 – January 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 11 – November 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 10 – October 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 8 – August 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 9 – September 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 8 – August 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 7 – July 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 6 – June 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 5 – May 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 4 – April 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 3 – March 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 2 – February 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 1 – January 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 11 – November 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 10 – October 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 9 – September 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 8 – August 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 7 – July 2018
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 4 – April 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 3 – March 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 2 – February 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 1 – January 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 11 – November 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 10 – October 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 9 – September 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 8 – August 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 7 – July 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 6 – June 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 5 – May 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 4 – April 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 3 – March 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 2 – February 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 1 – January 2017