Washington Economy Watch provides local business and government leaders with a consistent analysis of Greater Washington’s regional economy to ensure they are equipped with the information needed to make informed decisions regarding the future development of the region’s economy.
Following the onset of a recession in July of 1990, a region-specific early warning analytical framework was developed to ensure public and private sectors leaders could better anticipate changes in the direction of the local economy. The Washington Economic Index has been calculated each month since February 1991 and reflects an underlying data base that dates back to 1978.
The Washington Coincident Index represents the current state of the metropolitan area economy based on a combination of regional indicators, including wage and salary employment, consumer confidence, and domestic passenger volume. This index has been simplified while being reconstructed.
Each month, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute will report on the status of these key indicators to ensure regional leaders have the most up-to-date information in regards to the current and near-term performance of the Washington region’s economy.
Understanding Business Cycles and The Washington Economic Index ›
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Washington Economy Watch
Vol. IX, No. 3 – April 2025
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Imminent Economic Malaise
The Coincident Index decreased 1.0% from March 2024 to March 2025, a stark shift from previous positive readings.
The Coincident Index turned negative in month-over-year terms, which is a continuation of a bellwether change in the regional economy that started in January. The region is showing signs of rapid deterioration in its most important sectors – direct federal employment and professional, scientific, and technical employment (mostly federal contractors). The base SFI employment forecast suggests employment in the region will turn negative month-over-year in June, with month-over-year employment losses through at least September. Job losses will likely rise sharply in October as federal employees who accepted buy-out offers go off federal payrolls. The overall employment losses suggest general economic turbulence ahead that will be exacerbated by national trends as the economy adjusts to tariffs and other federal policies. This will create challenges for state and local jurisdictions in the DMV from tax losses associated with fewer jobs and diminished commercial property values. Overall, the region seems set for an economic downturn with a very uncertain end date.
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Washington Index (monthly, 1990 to present)
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 3 – April 2025
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 2 – March 2025
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 1 – January 2025
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 11 – November 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 10 – October 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 9 – September 2024
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 7 – July 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 6 – June 2024
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 1 – January 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 11 – November 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 10 – October 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 9 – September 2023
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 1 – January 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VI, No. 2 – December 2022
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VI, No. 1 – November 2022
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 7 – October 2021
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 4 – 2Q 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 3 – March 2021
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 1 – January 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 10 – Nov/Dec 2020
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 1 – January 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 11 – November 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 1 – January 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 11 – November 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 10 – October 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 8 – August 2019
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 8 – August 2019
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 1 – January 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 11 – November 2018
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 11 – November 2017
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 9 – September 2017
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 1 – January 2017