From The Washington Business Journal:
When the nation’s economy is bad, people stay in the Washington region. But when times are good across the country, Greater Washington sees more residents leave than move here, a trend that is only increasing — and one that bodes poorly for the region’s ability to attract top talent and grow its economy.
The findings are one of the many details to come out of 51-page report analyzing domestic migration patterns in Greater Washington from 2000 to 2015. Produced by the Stephen S. Fuller Institute at George Mason University, the report focuses on residents who leave Greater Washington versus those who move into the region from other parts of the country, as opposed to population growth through births or international immigration.
The upshot: The only periods when Greater Washington saw a net increase in domestic migration was in the aftermath of two recessions, in early 2001 and 2002, and then again from 2009 to 2013. Since then, more people have moved out than in, with that number of departures growing each year in the last three years.
The data only corroborates recent population trends and Census figures showing the same phenomenon.
“It might just be that the stability that this region offers — people value it more during a time of national economic insecurity,” said Jeannette Chapman, deputy director and senior research associate at the Fuller Institute. At those times, “they may be thinking about a move, but they delay it.”
Meanwhile, in recent years, the region’s population growth came entirely from international immigration and natural growth, or births, rising from about 4.86 million people to 6.13 million people, according to the report. More established households moved to areas primarily in the South, while the number of people moving to Greater Washington remained relatively steady.
The report also found that:
- When people moved away, they primarily went to areas either close by, like Richmond or Hagerstown, or to metro areas with strong job growth.
- People moving to the region tended to be younger and higher educated and employed in high-wage jobs in professional services or the federal government. Those leaving were likely to be of retirement age. Many of those who leave are also in the hospitality or health care industries.
- As baby boomers get older, the trend of them leaving will only accelerate, which can cause some problems for the region as it looks to fill needed jobs.
“The upcoming generational changes may result in a tightening of the labor pool and present challenges not only for the workforce, but also for the housing market and traditional patterns of growth,” the report said.
So where do those who move here come from within the country? The top location is the Virginia Beach, Norfolk and Newport News area of Virginia, which sent 14,110 people to Greater Washington across that 15-year period. Second was Honolulu, which sent 7,145 people to the nation’s capital, followed by Pittsburgh.
And where do Washingtonians move out to? The Baltimore region tops the list by far, with about 77,007 people migrating from here to there between 2000 and 2015. Next on the list are Hagerstown, Maryland; Winchester and Richmond in Virginia; and Charlotte, North Carolina.