The Stephen S. Fuller Institute

During a shutdown, the federal government stops contributing to key components of the Washington region’s economy, including civilian and military wages and salaries, procurement and grants. Altogether, the federal government accounts for 29.9 percent of the regional economy and pays $2.5 billion each week for work being performed in the region. During the shutdown, a significant portion of this activity will stop. The key question, however, is how much of that lost spending and economic activity will be made up later and how much will be forgone entirely. Even if the majority of the spending is made up post-shutdown, losses in efficiency, distributional impacts, and increased uncertainty will have a modest economic costs, which will increase as the shutdown continues. Without back pay, the economic impact is projected to be significant and a three-week shutdown could cost the region upwards of 0.26 percent of its gross regional product.