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Economic advice for Prince William: Build high-quality walkable communities

From Inside NOVA:

Prince William County leaders may need to re-think the sort of housing developments they’re luring to the area if they truly want to grow the county’s economy, according to a leading researcher on the economics of the Washington, D.C. area.

Stephen Fuller, the director of his own economics institute at George Mason University, swung by Manassas on Nov. 3 to offer his take on Prince William’s economic health to the county’s Chamber of Commerce and several county supervisors. While Fuller feels that the county is generally well-positioned for the next decade or so, he warned that Prince William officials will need to find a way to build more high-quality, walkable communities if they want to attract talented young workers (and the companies that covet them).

“What companies want most these days is a good workforce,” Fuller said. “And that puts pressure on areas having good housing, parks, these amenities, more so than 10 or 20 years ago. Businesses don’t go somewhere and think the talent will follow. It tends to be the other way around.”

In particular, Fuller suggested that the county might look at attracting developers of higher density communities to come to Prince William, particularly in areas with access to public transit like Manassas or along the “I-95 corridor.” He’s also bullish on the potential of Innovation Park near Mason’s Prince William campus to attract development, calling it a “gold mine,” though he urged patience from county leaders to not abandon the area if growth looks sluggish.

“You have two or three major nodes that will generate good jobs, you need to build communities around them,” Fuller said.

But no matter how the county addresses this issue, he said he thinks employment numbers point to a clear need for a change in attracting top-tier businesses to the area. When it comes to the “professional and business services” sector, which includes all manner of specialized consulting and technology jobs, Fuller expects that about 18.2 percent of jobs in the county will fall into that category by 2025 — considering that the average for the D.C. region is about 26.1 percent, Prince William has some catching up to do.

“This is the Christmas future you can change,” Fuller said. “You’re under-specialized, but improving.”

That’s why Fuller suggests that the county should embrace new residential development, but make sure it’s the kind of development that will prove attractive to millennials–rather than simply approving the same kind of suburban communities that have defined the Northern Virginia region.

Accordingly, he cautioned that county leaders may not want to be too married to the “moonshot goal” the Board of County Supervisors set several months ago of increasing the share of the county’s property taxes paid by businesses from 14 percent to 35 percent. He suggested that goal may be “a way to illustrate the need to develop a better balance” between commercial and residential tax revenue, but he also doesn’t think the county should “overly manage land use to discourage residential” development.

“To say you don’t want any new housing means you’re being blinded to other opportunities,” Fuller said. “Having higher quality residential development is another way to get to this…But 35 [percent] is probably not realistic.”

For At-Large Chairman Corey Stewart, who attended the presentation along with Supervisors Ruth Anderson, R-Occoquan, and Frank Principi, D-Woodbridge, Fuller’s prescription on this front was welcome.

“To get the talent we want, we need to build the types of real estate they want,” Stewart said. “Then the businesses come, but there is a lag there.”

But Fuller also warned Stewart and his colleagues on the board to avoid “overly capturing” promising tracts of land with inefficient development. In particular, he suggested that the board’s focus on attracting data centers to the county’s spacious rural areas may prove to be a misstep down the line.

“Remember how big a computer was 15 or 20 years ago? I wonder how long data centers will survive,” Fuller said. “It makes me think they could be overbuilt, because you don’t know what to do when you’re done with them. It seems a shame to put them in places we know you will need in the long haul.”

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